A weekend Truth Social post from President Donald Trump set in motion the first steps in creating a strategic U.S. bitcoin (BTC ($93,888.71)) reserve, but Polymarket traders are skeptical that it will happen within the first 100 days.
As of press time, Polymarket bettors are giving a 23% chance that a strategic BTC reserve will be created within the first 100 days of the Trump presidency – or by April 30th, 2025.
Rules of the contract say that the U.S. government will need to specifically hold bitcoin – and not from confiscation – by 11:59 PM ET on April 29 for this to resolve to yes. Announcements of the creation of a reserve do not count.
Chances of a reserve coming true spiked from 11% to 23% in the moments after Trump’s announcement. Another contract that asks if a reserve will be created by the end of 2025 currently has a 65% chance of resolving to yes.
Initially, Trump’s social media post announcing the creation of the reserve only named XRP ($2.89) and SOL ($175.45) as components of the reserve—which caused their value to spike—before clarifying that BTC and ETH ($2,524.80) would also be included in the reserve.
One of the most profitable traders of the 100-day crypto reserve contract is Theo5, which appears to be affiliated with a French trader who created a series of accounts, including Theo4, to directionally bet on Trump’s victory in the November 2024 election.
Theo5 currently has posted a $40,000 profit on his no position.
Meanwhile, a trader known as Polywog lost $73,000 on their yes position and also lost over $560,000 by incorrectly betting on the outcome of the 2025 election. creator solana token
