Historical patterns on Bitcoin (BTC ($102,339.35) USD) price cycles are enroute to $184,600 should the asset rise beyond 2.4 times from its 200 day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
We’ve seen this pattern with multiple market cycles, including during the bull runs in 2013, 2017 and 2021, where Bitcoin topped out once it crossed this threshold.
According to market expert Ali Martinez, recent data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin’s major cycle shifts and blow-off tops have always correlated with this important marker.
The analyst tracked Bitcoin’s past market behavior and attempted to forecast potential levels where Bitcoin would potentially see resistance before the new downtrend would begin.
Source: XIt’s especially notable in this cycle given that Bitcoin has been on a steady climb in 2024.
2.4x 200-day SMA has been a trusted indicator that will give traders meaningful clues as to when Bitcoin is about to reach the end of its bull market phase.
Bitcoin (BTC USD) 2.4x 200-Day SMA Now Stands at $184,600
This puts the 2.4x multiple of Bitcoin’s 200 day SMA at $184,600, currently a level where a next major resistance point for Bitcoin’s ongoing rally could be found.
Historically, when Bitcoin does reach this level, we typically see a period of increased volatility.
Past cycles have indicated that prices don’t manage to remain above this point for a sustained length of time.
Shown in the analysis chart below, by the blue vertical bars, past cycle tops occur when Bitcoin (BTC USD) has exceeded the 2.4x 200-day SMA.
So, it seems that although Bitcoin’s current uptrend is still alive and well, there may yet be a lot of room for price appreciation before running into historical resistance.
Given that Bitcoin’s current realized price is $42,644, much lower than its spot price today, this metric also indicates how bullish the market is.
The realized price is the average acquisition price of all BTC USD in circulation and thus a failure of the price to substantially exceed this threshold signals a period of speculative excess.
Despite that, on-chain measures still show that Bitcoin hasn’t entered the final stage of its bull market.
Bitcoin’s Current Market Outlook
Bitcoin is trading at $104,318, according to the latest Binance BTC/USD hourly chart at the time of writing.
In recent days the price action has been bullish. Bitcoin bounced out of the dip from below $98k and consolidates in an ascending channel.
Bitcoin’s current price movement, shown in the green shaded channel in the Binance chart, is characterized by an uptrend within a well defined range.
The market is still strong as the price has been making higher highs and higher lows.
A bullish immediate trajectory is suggested by this, which sees Bitcoin (BTC USD) testing the $110,000 to $120,000 resistance zone before an attempt to break toward the $184.6K 2.4x SMA.
1-hour BTC/USD Chart | Source: TradingViewWhen looked at differently, the volume oscillator, which measures the percentage of change in trading volume, is still at -13.44% at the time of writing.
This means that while Bitcoin (BTC USD) is recovering, it is recovering with relatively less volume.
While this in and of itself is not bearish, lasting upward momentum will need continued increasing trading volume for price to challenge higher price targets following a breakout.
The post Bitcoin (BTC USD) Cycle Tops Align With 2.4x 200-Day SMA, What Next? appeared first on The Coin Republic.
