Cryptocurrency analytics firm K33 Research reported that the Bitcoin market is experiencing a period of extremely low volatility, with trading activity falling to its lowest levels in a month. According to its latest report, Bitcoin is down a modest 2% for the week as risk-averse traders drive down returns, volatility, and trading volumes.
Vetle Lunde, K33’s Director of Research, noted that while a pro-crypto Trump Administration offers long-term positives for Bitcoin and the broader industry, current uncertainty is suppressing market activity.
“Bitcoin metrics are softening across every corner of the market. Volumes, yields, option premiums and ETF flows have moved to areas not seen since before the election. Alongside these muted conditions, volatility has also slowed to its lowest levels in months,” Lunde said in a statement.
Lunde also noted that 37% of the top 100 U.S. companies currently exhibit higher 30-day volatility than Bitcoin, a phenomenon last seen in October 2023. However, he cautioned that these periods of low volatility tend to be short-lived, urging investors to prepare for potential market upheavals.
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“While the general risk aversion trend suggests that investors are prepared for downside volatility, moderate leverage levels suggest that liquidity chains currently carry less risk,” Lunde added.
Lunde’s analysis of CME Bitcoin Futures points to a possible shift in the market. Lunde noted that futures premiums have historically fallen below 5%, a rare occurrence. Examining data from 2021 to 2025, K33 found that lower futures premiums generally coincide with weaker Bitcoin market performance and are likely influenced by a prolonged bear market in 2022.
In futures, the basis is the difference between the futures price and the spot price. A premium occurs when futures prices exceed spot prices and generally indicates bullish sentiment, while a discount indicates bearish conditions.
Lunde emphasized that Bitcoin performs best in a strong base regime and advised caution given the current market uncertainty. “Given the current uncertainty, we advise caution until a clear directional signal emerges,” Lunde concluded.
*This is not investment advice.
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