This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
After bitcoin’s ascent to $109,000 and a more recent decline below $93,000, the asset’s price has fluctuated between those levels.
While price predictions remain a normal part of industry fodder, Copper.co took a bit of a different approach.
The crypto custody firm blended technical indicators (like the Relative Strength Index) with historical returns, volatility clustering and daily range behavior to forecast possible BTC ($97,432.68) price outcomes.
“Our main goal was not to pinpoint a specific final peak for bitcoin, but instead to identify price points at which traders might consider the market to be overextended,” Copper.co research head Fadi Aboualfa said in a statement.
The firm’s model indicated “concern levels” for BTC between $140,000 and $200,000 throughout 2025. High-accuracy (up to 91%) simulations paralleling last year’s calmer volatility profile signaled a potential breach near $165,000 in June.
“To clarify, these are not levels bitcoin will necessarily reach, but if it does, the market might be suggesting a potential peak,” the study explains.
The report calls bitcoin’s declining 30-day rolling volatility an “often-overlooked factor” — noting that low volatility allows a longer, smoother price climb. The simulations found any BTC price dip is projected to be short-lived.
Targets can, of course, be negated by external catalysts, the report warns.
“If bitcoin hits some of these upper limit projections and the next day the US does indeed announce a strategic reserve, are you shorting?” it poses. “Unlikely.”
Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.
Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter.
Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.
The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.
