As the recent presidential transition in the United States comes to an end, Kenya finds itself at a critical juncture in its trading relationship with the greatest economy in the world. Kenya cannot afford to miss the opportunity presented by the Trump administration’s return and its strong emphasis on bilateral trade agreements.
Economic analysis reveals a significant underperformance in Kenya-US trade relations, with bilateral volumes stagnating at $1.2 billion annually (2023), despite strategic partnership status.
This underutilisation becomes particularly evident when benchmarked against Vietnam, a developing country of Kenya’s status, which expanded its US trade to $138.9 billion – achieving a remarkable 360 percent growth from $30.2 billion in 2013. Vietnam’s extraordinary success is attributed to the signing of the Comprehensive Partnership with the United States in 2013.
Kenya’s trade on the other hand increased just 35 percent from $885 million in 2013 to $1.2 billion in 2023. Such disparity in trade optimisation metrics, despite Kenya’s preferential market access and geopolitical advantages, indicates substantial unexploited economic potential requiring immediate strategic intervention.
The writing is on the wall. The incoming administration’s preference for bilateral deals over traditional aid-first approaches signals a fundamental shift in US-Africa relations. For Kenya, this isn’t just another diplomatic reshuffling – it’s a potential economic game-changer.
The problem is that we cannot take this chance and proceed as usual. We are past the era of exporting raw commodities and crossing our fingers. Kenya must establish itself as the manufacturing and value-adding hub of East Africa. Our young workforce, strategic position, and developing infrastructure are more than simply talking points; they are our keys to economic change.
Think about this: nations like Vietnam have been developing strong industrial ecosystems, contemporary ports, and effective supply networks, while we have been content with the advantages of our Agoa. They planned, invested, and executed ruthlessly to achieve their trade miracle rather than hoping for it.
Although the strong tariff measures of the incoming Trump administration may cause some people to take notice, they also present chances for nations that are prepared to step up.
The business sector in Kenya must act swiftly to improve its capacities. Our textile producers must transition from producing simple clothing to producing technological textiles. Our agriculture industry needs to change from exporting unprocessed tea and coffee to selling branded, processed goods that fetch high prices.
The following must occur right away: First and foremost, our negotiating team must be equipped with sector-specific knowledge and explicit directives. Generalist approaches to trade agreements are no longer relevant.
Second, we require a significant investment in infrastructure, including digital infrastructure that can facilitate contemporary trade in addition to roads and railroads. Third, especially in light of artificial intelligence, we must restructure our technical training programs to produce the trained labor force that emerging businesses will require.
The course of Kenya’s economy may change over the next five years. Kenya’s demand for economic change is ideally aligned with the incoming US administration’s emphasis on bilateral agreements and trade above aid.
However, opportunities don’t always present themselves. One thing is certain as we begin this new chapter in US-Kenya relations: the time for change is here.
The writer is a Development Practitioner, Public Policy Specialist and Management Consultant. [email protected]
