– Approaching tariff date sinks Loonie.
– US consumers getting nervous.
– US dollar opens on a mixed note-Canadian dollar is the worst performing G-10 currency
USDCAD: open 1.4345, overnight range 1.4292-1.4345, close 1.4317, WTI 69.03, Gold 2912.97
The Canadian dollar gave up more ground overnight as the March 4 tariff date nears. Many Canadians were convinced that the tariff threat was just a Trump negotiating tactic, especially after the February 4 deadline came and went. Those skeptics received a dose of reality yesterday when Trump said, “The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule.” The Canadian dollar fell and continued to fall overnight after Trump ordered a probe on copper imports. Canada supplies America with about 26% of its refined copper imports.
Europeans are relieved but remain on edge after Ukraine caved in to Trump’s demand, which demanded 50% mineral rights in return for military support.
Asian equity indexes closed in the red except for those in China. Australia’s ASX 200 lost 0.14%, while Japan’s Topix fell 0.30%. European bourses are sharply higher, led by a 1.72% jump in the German DAX. S&P 500 futures are up 0.38%, with Nvidia’s quarterly earnings due at the close. Analysts expect strong results, which is supporting the other indexes.
The U.S. dollar is recouping some of yesterday’s losses, which occurred after consumer confidence was weaker than expected. The soft data fueled fears that Trump’s tariffs were spooking consumers due to the risk that they trigger a rise in inflation.
EURUSD drifted in a 1.0487-1.0525 band, rising slightly during Asian hours before pulling back ahead of the NY session. Weak German consumer confidence data and dovish remarks from ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras weighed on sentiment. Stournaras remarked that the upcoming meeting is not the right time to discuss pausing, emphasizing that policy remains in restrictive territory.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.2635-1.2678 range. Traders brushed aside warnings from the British Retail Council (BRC) about 160,000 part-time jobs being at risk over the next three years due to higher employment taxes introduced in the latest budget. GBPUSD is modestly bullish while trading above 1.2590.
USDJPY is near the top of its 148.63-149.62 range, although the outlook remains negative. That’s because the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates while U.S. rates remain unchanged. Japan’s Leading Economic Index fell to 108.3 from last month’s 108.9, missing forecasts, but it did not impact FX.
AUDUSD stayed within a narrow 0.6317-0.6354 range, mirroring the previous day’s movement. Market sentiment remained cautious after Trump’s tariff threats on copper, which dampened gains for resource-linked currencies. The Australian Consumer Price Index rose 2.5%, matching last month’s figure but slightly below expectations.
Today’s US data includes January Housing Starts.
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